Don’t Fight a War You Can’t Win — Prof. Ife Warns PENGASSAN Over Dangote Refinery Dispute

By Daniji Emmanuel
Renowned economist, Professor Ken Ife, has cautioned the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) against what he described as an “unwinnable war” with billionaire industrialist Aliko Dangote, following the union’s strike action over the alleged dismissal of 800 workers at the Dangote Refinery.
Speaking during an interview on Channels TV, Prof. Ife said the Dangote Group operates within a free trade zone, giving the company leverage that makes the union’s action largely ineffective.
“Don’t fight a war you cannot win. You can’t stop that company; it is in the free trade zone,” he warned. “Dangote can decide not to sell one litre of petrol to Nigeria. You cannot stop that. If he decides to do it, he will do it. Let’s be real—he has nothing to lose.”
The economist further argued that the union’s decision to embark on strike over the sacked employees fails to consider the broader economic implications.
“You don’t equate 800 workers to 230 million Nigerians. You don’t equate 800 workers to 4.2 million employees in this country,” Prof. Ife said, stressing that the strike could inflict severe economic damage far greater than the value of the affected workers’ wages.
He calculated the potential losses: “You don’t allow this country to bleed ₦14.5 billion every day for salaries of workers that amount to just about ₦80 million monthly. The math doesn’t make sense.”
Prof. Ife warned that Nigeria’s fragile economy cannot afford such disruptions and urged the union to reconsider its strategy. He also noted that PENGASSAN’s approach could backfire, ultimately hurting the very workers they seek to protect.
“You are destroying the jobs of these workers because you’re closing the door for further negotiation,” he said. “And when that happens, you’re not only hurting them—you’re shutting out opportunities for others who could benefit from the refinery’s operations.”
The ongoing standoff between Dangote Refinery and PENGASSAN has sparked intense debate across Nigeria’s energy sector, with stakeholders calling for dialogue to prevent further economic strain.