Nigeria Targets New Oil Export Path for 2026
Atume Terfa
Nigeria is laying the groundwork for a decisive shift in its oil and gas sector, targeting new export routes, modernised infrastructure and increased capital inflows as it works toward its 2026 production ambitions. With years of logistical bottlenecks limiting output, the country is now betting on smarter evacuation strategies and investor confidence to unlock growth.
While Nigeria’s crude oil target for 2026 stands at about 1.8 million barrels per day, stakeholders agree that success will hinge less on drilling activity and more on fixing long-standing infrastructure gaps. Ageing pipelines, limited export corridors and inefficient evacuation systems have repeatedly restricted Nigeria’s ability to get crude and refined products to international markets.
To reverse this trend, the government is prioritising the development of alternative export routes and the rehabilitation of key facilities. These moves are expected to ease congestion, reduce losses and create the capacity needed to support higher production levels — while also sending a positive signal to investors.
Attracting capital is central to Nigeria’s energy reset. Since 2023, the country has recorded over $16 billion in investment commitments across upstream, midstream and export-focused projects. Industry players believe these funds could unlock stalled assets, expand production and improve access to global markets.
In addition, fiscal reforms — including tax incentives and performance-linked measures — are being rolled out to lower operational costs and boost competitiveness. The goal is to position Nigeria as a more predictable and attractive destination for international oil and gas investment.
Regulators are also pushing for efficiency-driven growth. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) is promoting cluster development, optimisation of existing fields and faster project approvals to reduce investment risks. If fully implemented, these measures could lift Nigeria’s output to as much as 2.5 million barrels per day by 2026.
These efforts align with national programmes such as the Project One Million Barrels per Day, which focuses on reactivating dormant fields, applying advanced recovery techniques and streamlining regulatory processes to accelerate production.
Major infrastructure projects are expected to play a defining role in Nigeria’s export strategy. The Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) pipeline, scheduled for commissioning in early 2026, is set to boost gas transportation, support industrial expansion and strengthen Nigeria’s position in regional energy trade.
On the refining side, private-sector investments are gathering momentum. The ongoing expansion of the Dangote Refinery is projected to significantly increase Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity in the coming years, reinforcing confidence that large-scale infrastructure investment can support export-driven growth.
Nigeria’s oil push comes amid shifting patterns in foreign capital inflows and export earnings. While foreign investment levels have fluctuated, improvements in non-oil exports and foreign exchange market stability are helping to reshape the broader economic outlook.
Ultimately, Nigeria’s strategy goes beyond meeting production targets. By diversifying export routes and securing sustainable capital inflows, the country aims to build a more resilient energy sector, reduce systemic vulnerabilities and strengthen its standing in global oil markets. If successful, the oil and gas industry could once again emerge as a major engine of growth and foreign exchange earnings in 2026 and beyond.
